CFL WEEK 1 - WHO TO PLAY, WHO TO AVOID

CFL WEEK 1 – WHO TO PLAY, WHO TO AVOID

With only 4 games per week, it is equally important to know the right players to avoid as well as the right players to plug into your lineups. Here’s what I’m looking at for week 1.

QB – With such an emphasis on passing league wide you can’t afford to have your QB not keep up. With only 8 starting each week there aren’t many options to choose from and the key will be making sure you get one of the QBs who is hitting their 300 yard passing bonus while giving you TD upside.

AVOID: Mike Reilly, EDM, $10800: The highest priced QB on the board in week 1, Reilly paced all QB’s in DK points per game last year primarily due to an 11-week period where he scored 9 rushing TDs. Should still be in line to put up big numbers but a slight regression is likely to be coming. He faces a ball-hawking BC Lions secondary that will be fired up to be hosting a Saturday night season opening game. The Lions allowed the second fewest passing TDs last season. Reilly will always have a safe floor but as the highest priced QB for the week I will be staying away.

PLAY: $9,600 – Jonathon Jennings, BC: Led the league in pass completions of over 30 yards last season and offseason additions at WR should ensure that he holds that title again this year. Somehow is only the 6^th highest priced QB (only 8 start per week) despite leading an offense that looks to be one of, if not the most prolific this season. Has the chance to go off for a couple HUGE games per year and you don’t want to miss out when he does. A safe rushing floor increases his safety at the position. Facing a middle of the pack defense that doesn’t particularly struggle or excel in any given area.

All of the other 6 QB’s have valid reasons to play them so I will be looking to stack my QBs with the receivers I play on each roster. Bo Levi Mitchell of the Calgary Stampeders looks to be the safest play at an even $10000. He hits 300 yards more often than he misses while leading last years highest scoring offense. He is also playing in what looks to be a high-pace, high-scoring #REVENGE game against the Ottawa RedBlacks, the same team that beat him in last years Grey Cup game. If you want to dip down in salary, Kevin Glenn of the Saskatchewan Roughriders is the cheapest QB by far. The offense should be poor but they barely ran the ball at all last year so at the very least pass attempts should be plentiful. Glenn has a bit of upside at his price but is definitely not a safe play.

RB – I strongly devalue the RB position in favor of fitting in more WRs that give you a chance at a huge game. Regardless, you are required to play at least one so I will note some of my favorite and not so favorite plays from all salary tiers.

PLAY - $7,200 – Jeremiah Johnson, BC: Has one of the most secure holds on a heavy workload in the league as his primary challenger for playing time departed in the offseason. Should be good for at least 4 targets out of the backfield while getting some goal-line touches running behing arguably the leagues best offensive line.

AVOID - $7,000 – Brandon Whitaker, TOR: Had a solid season last year but was curiously left unsigned as a free agent until late in the offseason when he re-upped with Toronto. New GM Jim Popp cut him a few years ago when he was with Montreal and is clearly interested in seeing what Anthony Coombs and James Wilder Jr can do behind him. Wouldn’t be surprising at all to see one or both of them take a huge chunk out of his workload in week 1.

PLAY - $6,400 Tyrell Sutton or $5,500 Brandon Rutley, MTL: The Alouettes are facing last years worst rush defense when the Saskatchewan Roughriders come to town. It is a 2-man battle between Sutton and Rutley to start at RB for the team, but whoever wins the job for week 1 should see a lot of carries. New coach Jacques Chapdelaine has a history of rotating backs from game to game, but the one to get the start will see all the carries as he generally only has one of his top backs active. Top return man Stefan Logan is more than capable of handling backup/change of pace duties so dressing both Rutley and Sutton would be a waste of a roster spot. If Rutley gets the start at $900 cheaper, he will be my back of choice in the majority of my lineups.

AVOID - $6,000 – CJ Gable, HAM: Competition was brought in over the offseason but Gable should hang on the starting job. However, Hamilton throws even more than the average team so Gable’s carries will never be where you want them too. With oft-injured QB Zach Collaros finally healthy to start the season Hamilton will be a team that is giving you points through the air, not on the ground.

PLAY - $4,600 – Roy Finch, CGY: Now here is a play I can fully get behind! Finch is the definite backup behind Jerome Messam but also one of the most capable return men in the league with the potential to rack up return yards and take one to the house at any time. He has been talked up by the coaching staff all offseason and there is a clear attempt to get him more carries as the backup to preserve the 31 yr old Messam for later in the season.

WR – This is where GPPs will be won and lost! With the potential to play 4 receivers, having them all hit will be the ticket to big money!! Don’t be afraid to take more than one receiver per team and stack them with their QB. Be sure to take note of the good values lower on the salary tier that likely wont stay there long.

PLAY - $10,000 – Adarius Bowman, EDM: He’s the highest priced receiver on the board for good reason – he’s the best in the league! He is a matchup proof weapon playing against the BC Lions, a team he has put HUGE numbers up against in the past. BC will be looking to jump some routes which could give Bowman the room he needs to break free.

AVOID – Ottawa Redblacks Receivers – I think this passing offense will be explosive, don’t get me wrong. However, it was already a nightmare to determine who was going to be targeted most often last year, and with some turnover at WR its even harder to predict to start the year. I’m sure I’ll sprinkle a few stacks into some GPP lineups, but for the most part this is a wait and see situation. If I had to choose, Greg Ellingson at $6900 would be the play here, but he’s definitely got competition.

PLAY - $8000 Terrence Toliver, HAM: Will be one of my 2 most targeted receivers this week. Last season he put up much better numbers when Collaros was starting, scoring a TD in every game and averaging 87 yards. The rare player who is a threat to go deep but also is a huge red zone target for Collaros.

AVOID - $8700 Luke Tasker, HAM: This is a simple fade for me due to the fact that Toliver is $700 cheaper and I think he will have more yardage and Red Zone opportunities. With Brian Tyms also knocking at the door, Tasker doesn’t look to have the market share of the offense that he did last year with Toliver also missing time due to injury. Now that all hands are on deck Tasker is the best bet to regress.

PLAY - $6400 – Bryan Burnham, BC: There is no doubt in my mind that he is the most mispriced player on the board at only $6400. With Chris Williams still recovering from his ACL Burnham will hang on to his 2WR role in the pass game at a definite 3WR price. He was 4^th in receiving yards last year and 1^st in yards per reception and receptions of 30+ yards! Not only does he not give up his role to Williams yet, Shawn Gore retired in the offseason to open up some more targets in this high flying offense.

BARGAIN BIN

$4800 – Juron Criner, WR, Ottawa Redblacks

$4800 – Brian Tyms, WR, Hamilton Tiger Cats

$4400 – Brandon Zylstra, WR, Edmonton Eskimos

$4300 – Marco Iannuzzi, WR, BC Lions

$3700 – Nic Demski, WR, Saskatchewan Roughriders.

What a shocker, I’m targeting solely WRs at the bottom of the board. Demski in particular should step into a bigger role with Rob Bagg and Chad Owens already ruled out for the season opener. He’s a former first round pick who is still looked at as a future stud in Saskatchewan. Tyms and Zylstra could end up being quite highly owned when all is said and done, both performed well at the end of last season and look to have expanded roles to start 2017. Marco Iannuzzi still has some gas left in the tank and with Chris Williams out should see some targets behind Manny Arceneaux and Burnham. Criner is more of a dart throw, but with that Ottawa offense so wide open right know he could step up and try to establish himself as a potential replacement for Williams, who of course is now in BC.

CFL DFS Season Primer Part 2 - Who The F*ck are these guys??

WHO THE F*CK ARE THESE GUYS???

I am assuming many who play CFL DFS this year won’t know much about the players they are laying their money on in a given week. “Hey – I cashed this week thanks to Cris Carters kid hauling in 2 TDs” is a scenario that could definitely play out, but it is equally likely you cash thanks to a player you’ve barely heard of having the game of the week. Let’s look at some players who should find their way onto your rosters throughout the year. As I hope to do throughout the year, I’ll add in an NFL comparable to each player I write up to give NFL players a different viewpoint on who they are playing and why.

QBs

Texas Born Bo Levi Mitchell plays for the Calgary Stampeders and is as safe as its going to get for cash games. On two separate occasions he went at least five games in a row with 300 yards through the air. He leads last years top offense and shows no signs of slowing down this year. Think Tom Brady – his teams will run the ball late but it will be thanks to his arm giving them a sizeable lead.

Mike Reilly of the Edmonton Eskimos scored 9 rushing touchdowns over an 11 week stretch to give him the overall fantasy points per game lead for the season. While these numbers are likely to regress, he still has a solid rushing floor and the ability to pass for multiple TDs any given game. Slower than Marcus Mariota, but similar from a fantasy floor/ceiling standpoint.

RBs

Winnipeg’s Andrew Harris finished 3^rd in the league in rushing and also led the position in receiving yards. As the unquestioned feature back in the offense, his role is much more secure than most backs in the league. The only thing lacking is touchdown upside as he only hit paydirt 5 times last season. With his dual role he could be considered a (very, very, very) poor mans David Johnson, but I think a more apt comparison would be DeMarco Murray.

CJ Gable of the Hamilton Tiger Cats is one of the most talented backs in the league, but never gets the rushing attempts you want to pay off his mid-tier RB salary. Hamilton ran the pass heaviest offense in the league last year and has brought in a couple of young backs to pressure Gable throughout the season. He looks to have a very similar path as Ty Montgomery - they both will struggle to get enough attempts to win any GPPs and both have young talent breathing down their necks.

WRs

Adarius Bowman of the Edmonton Eskimos is the most talented receiver in the league, and likely to be the most expensive every week as well. Like Julio Jones, he has the potential to win you a GPP every time you roster him, no matter the matchup. Doesn’t get quite enough targets to reach Antonio Brown levels, but without question has the same potential as Julio to put up a 160 yard, 2 touchdown game. Just be prepared to be disappointed with the occasional 4 catch, 50 yard performance.

The Calgary Stampeders have offensive weapons across the board, but the one most likely to find the endzone is DaVaris Daniels. He plays on a high-powered offense ran by one of the top QBs in the league. He won’t usually get you 10 catches, but he’ll almost never dip below 5 either. One of the rare players in the league who is as much of a deep threat as he is a red zone weapon for his QB, his usage and consistency, and the way he scores his points is almost identical to Jordy Nelson, and like Jordy he should firmly sit at the top of the second-tier price range for much of the season, making him hard to pass up in cash games.

Chris Williams of the BC Lions is the DFS version of a more consistent Desean Jackson. Probably the fastest receiver in the league, he will get the chance to return a punt or kick every now and then if his team needs a spark, but will do most of his damage via the deep ball. He may miss a game or two to start the season as he recovers from a torn ACL, but once is he is full speed he is a game-changer. He signed with BC as a free agent in the offseason and his new QB had more completions of 30+ yards than anyone else in the league so his stats could climb to new heights.

Not everyone can be fun to roster, and plugging Brandon Banks of the Tiger Cats could feel like playing Tyreek Hill this past season. He has the ability to take the ball to the house every time he touches it, but doesn’t get quite enough offensive touches to be a consistent option and you will find yourself relying on his special teams contributions to pay off his salary. The highest upside play with Banks, as it was with Hill last season, is to stack him with his teams defense on a GPP lineup to hope for the ‘double dip’ through a return touchdown.

The CFL doesn’t employ a traditional TE position but if they did Nik Lewis would line up there for the Montreal Alouettes. As it stands he plays the CFL’s ‘slotback’ and is a high floor player with almost no TD upside. He consistently catches a minimum of 5 balls with the upside for more, but only scores 3-4 times a year. DFS wise he aligns almost perfectly with fellow old man Jason Witten.

As far as diving into the players goes, this is just the tip of the iceberg but I think it’s a good start towards familiarizing yourself with some of these athletes. As I preview matchups throughout the year I will continue to draw comparisons to NFL situations to better explain why you are playing a player in a certain matchup or avoiding him in others, hopefully it brings a unique view to the process and lets you feel like you’re more in control when you’re putting your roster together. The start of week one is fast approaching – look for my week 1 preview article coming out soon!

DraftKings CFL Season Primer

The CFL season kicks off on June 22^nd, a day that will go unnoticed to most fans of the NFL and avid DFSers. Do not let yourself be one of those people! This is a chance to get your DFS football fix while building your bankroll for the NFL season against some unmistakeably soft money. Yes, DraftKings CFL contests pale in comparison to the NFL product but it is still an area to take advantage of with a little bit of research and game theory.

There are some rule differences between the CFL and the NFL, but instead of going through each and every one I will just hit on their fantasy impacts. If you though the NFL has turned into a passing league, you should check out the CFL! With 1 less down to work with passing situations are far more frequent, therefore QBs and pass-catchers become far more important. One less down also leads to more punting, and more punt return opportunities. With 1 DK point awarded for every 20 return yards you need to be aware of who is going to be handling those duties for each team.

I dug deep to determine the answers to some key questions about how, when and why different players at different positions are scoring DraftKings points to gain an edge on the competition for the upcoming season. The important questions I asked myself are below:

What positions are scoring the most DK points? As you can see in the chart below there are two clear leaders when it comes to putting up DK points per game – The QBs and their WR1s. The top backs are scoring at a near identical rate to the WR2s with the WR3s trailing by a fair margin. When you look deeper into the league trends as a whole this makes a lot of sense as teams passed on 63% of all non-special teams plays last season, leaving only 37% for rush plays.

How are RB points scored, via receiving or rushing or both? Considering what we learned in the previous section it is clear that rushing takes a back seat to the passing game in the CFL. With one less down to work with this leads to more passing situations. Of the 14.69 DK points scored by a team’s top back in games, only 57% of them came on the ground as opposed to 43% through the air. Rushers only reached the 100 yard threshold on 21 occasions to hit the 3 pt bonus, so barely over 1 back a week hit that target. Note that while 43% of DK points came from receiving only 13 TDS were scored via reception compared to 53 rushing which works out to just under 22%. 517 receptions were recorded by teams RB1s so looking for targets is much more consistent and reliable than attempting to chase receiving touchdowns.

How often are players hitting 3 pt bonuses? I touched on this a bit in the previous section, noting that there were only 21 occasions with an RB hitting that bonus in 162 games (14%). For QBs that number is much higher, as they hit the 300 yard bonus a whopping 48% of the time. WR1s hit their 100 yard bonus at an identical rate. WR2s hit it 13% of the time and unsurprisingly WR3s were not hitting that number, if they were they wouldn’t be the WR3 that game! With nearly 50% of all QBs and WR1s hitting these bonuses, missing out on them will be much more crippling than in the NFL game.

Where are QB points coming from? The QB sneak is a lot more common in the CFL than the NFL as opposing defenses give a yard to the offense. This makes a 2^nd or 3^rd and inches play almost guaranteed when teams call for the sneak. This rings true near the end zone as well, but almost every team has a designated short yardage quarterback who comes in for these situations leaving us unable to fully capitalize on them from a fantasy standpoint. If you filter the results to solely include the starting QBs, 87.5% of their DK points come from their contributions to the passing game. In total, starting QBs picked up 1346 yards on the ground (8.3 per game) but they managed to score 35 touchdowns which accounts for 61% of their rushing DK points. In short, don’t look for a QB who can pick up yards on the ground as you just need him to reach the endzone.

Can you gain an advantage playing players on special teams? 8 players averaged more than 5 DK points per game via the return during the season and no one who provided consistent stats in another area (i.e. no offensive starters) is included in that group. Only 2 kickoff returns were brought back for touchdowns all season and 8 punt returns were as well. I originally thought this would be a good area to target for points but upon further review it appears it will be more beneficial to ignore return specialists. Only 6 times all year did a player reach double digits in return points, always requiring a TD to reach that #. Make no mistake – if you catch one on a day he scores a TD it will be a huge plus and provide the ultimate GPP play but unless pricing makes it really attractive to look at rostering a special teams contributor ignoring them is the way to go.

How do different positions correlate with each other? This is the most crucial part of information to consider when building GPP lineups for CFL contests. With only 4 games a week I think it will be equally profitable to focus on avoiding situations with minimal correlation as well as targeting situations with high positive correlations. Both need to be relied on but if we can assume everyone will be focusing on stacking their lineups (which has proven to be essential) we can gain an edge by also knowing which players to avoid playing together in the same lineup.

The highest correlations by far are between a QB and his top 3 WRs, all in the range of 0.58-0.59, which is just massive, even higher than for the same positions in the NFL. This should make stacking even more essential for CFL GPPs. If you are starting a QB, at the very least pair him with one of his top receivers! Even pairing him with 2 is going to be beneficial more often than not. Running backs have almost no correlation with anyone else, a 0.10 with their own QB and minimal positive or negative correlation with anyone else. WR1/WR2 and WR2/WR3 are also hugely correlated at 0.47 and 0.49.

How can I use all of this information to start building my roster(s)? My strategy for the year has become clear as I take in all of this information. Roster construction is very flexible for CFL contests as they have a QB-RB-WR-WR-FLEX-FLEX-DST setup. For me, that is going to mean RB-WR-WR-WR-WR most (if not all) of the time. Think about it – QBs and top WRs are hitting their 3 point bonuses almost 50% of the time, while it is rare to have more than one RB a week hit it! The only time I will consider taking a higher priced RB will be if his receiving numbers are consistent and can be counted upon. For the most pary I’m going to be looking to play one value RB at all times while using the savings and the other 4 slots to try to find multiple 100 yard upside receivers.

Hope this gives you a head start on your CFL lineups for the year, I will be posting more player focused information shortly, followed by weekly matchup previews as the season goes on!