CFL WEEK 1 - WHO TO PLAY, WHO TO AVOID

CFL WEEK 1 – WHO TO PLAY, WHO TO AVOID

With only 4 games per week, it is equally important to know the right players to avoid as well as the right players to plug into your lineups. Here’s what I’m looking at for week 1.

QB – With such an emphasis on passing league wide you can’t afford to have your QB not keep up. With only 8 starting each week there aren’t many options to choose from and the key will be making sure you get one of the QBs who is hitting their 300 yard passing bonus while giving you TD upside.

AVOID: Mike Reilly, EDM, $10800: The highest priced QB on the board in week 1, Reilly paced all QB’s in DK points per game last year primarily due to an 11-week period where he scored 9 rushing TDs. Should still be in line to put up big numbers but a slight regression is likely to be coming. He faces a ball-hawking BC Lions secondary that will be fired up to be hosting a Saturday night season opening game. The Lions allowed the second fewest passing TDs last season. Reilly will always have a safe floor but as the highest priced QB for the week I will be staying away.

PLAY: $9,600 – Jonathon Jennings, BC: Led the league in pass completions of over 30 yards last season and offseason additions at WR should ensure that he holds that title again this year. Somehow is only the 6^th highest priced QB (only 8 start per week) despite leading an offense that looks to be one of, if not the most prolific this season. Has the chance to go off for a couple HUGE games per year and you don’t want to miss out when he does. A safe rushing floor increases his safety at the position. Facing a middle of the pack defense that doesn’t particularly struggle or excel in any given area.

All of the other 6 QB’s have valid reasons to play them so I will be looking to stack my QBs with the receivers I play on each roster. Bo Levi Mitchell of the Calgary Stampeders looks to be the safest play at an even $10000. He hits 300 yards more often than he misses while leading last years highest scoring offense. He is also playing in what looks to be a high-pace, high-scoring #REVENGE game against the Ottawa RedBlacks, the same team that beat him in last years Grey Cup game. If you want to dip down in salary, Kevin Glenn of the Saskatchewan Roughriders is the cheapest QB by far. The offense should be poor but they barely ran the ball at all last year so at the very least pass attempts should be plentiful. Glenn has a bit of upside at his price but is definitely not a safe play.

RB – I strongly devalue the RB position in favor of fitting in more WRs that give you a chance at a huge game. Regardless, you are required to play at least one so I will note some of my favorite and not so favorite plays from all salary tiers.

PLAY - $7,200 – Jeremiah Johnson, BC: Has one of the most secure holds on a heavy workload in the league as his primary challenger for playing time departed in the offseason. Should be good for at least 4 targets out of the backfield while getting some goal-line touches running behing arguably the leagues best offensive line.

AVOID - $7,000 – Brandon Whitaker, TOR: Had a solid season last year but was curiously left unsigned as a free agent until late in the offseason when he re-upped with Toronto. New GM Jim Popp cut him a few years ago when he was with Montreal and is clearly interested in seeing what Anthony Coombs and James Wilder Jr can do behind him. Wouldn’t be surprising at all to see one or both of them take a huge chunk out of his workload in week 1.

PLAY - $6,400 Tyrell Sutton or $5,500 Brandon Rutley, MTL: The Alouettes are facing last years worst rush defense when the Saskatchewan Roughriders come to town. It is a 2-man battle between Sutton and Rutley to start at RB for the team, but whoever wins the job for week 1 should see a lot of carries. New coach Jacques Chapdelaine has a history of rotating backs from game to game, but the one to get the start will see all the carries as he generally only has one of his top backs active. Top return man Stefan Logan is more than capable of handling backup/change of pace duties so dressing both Rutley and Sutton would be a waste of a roster spot. If Rutley gets the start at $900 cheaper, he will be my back of choice in the majority of my lineups.

AVOID - $6,000 – CJ Gable, HAM: Competition was brought in over the offseason but Gable should hang on the starting job. However, Hamilton throws even more than the average team so Gable’s carries will never be where you want them too. With oft-injured QB Zach Collaros finally healthy to start the season Hamilton will be a team that is giving you points through the air, not on the ground.

PLAY - $4,600 – Roy Finch, CGY: Now here is a play I can fully get behind! Finch is the definite backup behind Jerome Messam but also one of the most capable return men in the league with the potential to rack up return yards and take one to the house at any time. He has been talked up by the coaching staff all offseason and there is a clear attempt to get him more carries as the backup to preserve the 31 yr old Messam for later in the season.

WR – This is where GPPs will be won and lost! With the potential to play 4 receivers, having them all hit will be the ticket to big money!! Don’t be afraid to take more than one receiver per team and stack them with their QB. Be sure to take note of the good values lower on the salary tier that likely wont stay there long.

PLAY - $10,000 – Adarius Bowman, EDM: He’s the highest priced receiver on the board for good reason – he’s the best in the league! He is a matchup proof weapon playing against the BC Lions, a team he has put HUGE numbers up against in the past. BC will be looking to jump some routes which could give Bowman the room he needs to break free.

AVOID – Ottawa Redblacks Receivers – I think this passing offense will be explosive, don’t get me wrong. However, it was already a nightmare to determine who was going to be targeted most often last year, and with some turnover at WR its even harder to predict to start the year. I’m sure I’ll sprinkle a few stacks into some GPP lineups, but for the most part this is a wait and see situation. If I had to choose, Greg Ellingson at $6900 would be the play here, but he’s definitely got competition.

PLAY - $8000 Terrence Toliver, HAM: Will be one of my 2 most targeted receivers this week. Last season he put up much better numbers when Collaros was starting, scoring a TD in every game and averaging 87 yards. The rare player who is a threat to go deep but also is a huge red zone target for Collaros.

AVOID - $8700 Luke Tasker, HAM: This is a simple fade for me due to the fact that Toliver is $700 cheaper and I think he will have more yardage and Red Zone opportunities. With Brian Tyms also knocking at the door, Tasker doesn’t look to have the market share of the offense that he did last year with Toliver also missing time due to injury. Now that all hands are on deck Tasker is the best bet to regress.

PLAY - $6400 – Bryan Burnham, BC: There is no doubt in my mind that he is the most mispriced player on the board at only $6400. With Chris Williams still recovering from his ACL Burnham will hang on to his 2WR role in the pass game at a definite 3WR price. He was 4^th in receiving yards last year and 1^st in yards per reception and receptions of 30+ yards! Not only does he not give up his role to Williams yet, Shawn Gore retired in the offseason to open up some more targets in this high flying offense.

BARGAIN BIN

$4800 – Juron Criner, WR, Ottawa Redblacks

$4800 – Brian Tyms, WR, Hamilton Tiger Cats

$4400 – Brandon Zylstra, WR, Edmonton Eskimos

$4300 – Marco Iannuzzi, WR, BC Lions

$3700 – Nic Demski, WR, Saskatchewan Roughriders.

What a shocker, I’m targeting solely WRs at the bottom of the board. Demski in particular should step into a bigger role with Rob Bagg and Chad Owens already ruled out for the season opener. He’s a former first round pick who is still looked at as a future stud in Saskatchewan. Tyms and Zylstra could end up being quite highly owned when all is said and done, both performed well at the end of last season and look to have expanded roles to start 2017. Marco Iannuzzi still has some gas left in the tank and with Chris Williams out should see some targets behind Manny Arceneaux and Burnham. Criner is more of a dart throw, but with that Ottawa offense so wide open right know he could step up and try to establish himself as a potential replacement for Williams, who of course is now in BC.